On Tuesday morning, Phillies fans were giddy.
After another stellar pitching performance by Taijuan Walker, of all people, and a stirring four-run, two-out, eighth inning comeback led to a 4-1 win over the Reds, the Phils had won four in a row, were hot off their sweep of the Rangers in Texas, were 20 games over .500 and a season-high six games up for first place in the National League East.
The conversation around the Phils had changed substantially since before the All Star Break. Suddenly, the offense
was clutch. The rotation was routinely putting up zeroes. With Jhoan Duran as the closer, the bullpen looked lights out. They were a complete team with a great shot at winning the World Series.
Fast-forward 48 hours. The Phillies were outscored 14-1 in the final two games of their series in Cincinnati, and the offense scored in just two of the 27 innings played over the last three days. Ranger Suarez’ velocity dip and second half struggles continued, Jordan Romano gave up a slam, and the defense was not nearly as sharp.
The Phillies lost two games in a row. They lost a series. It won’t be the last time that happens this year. But two losses to a Reds team that has a great starting rotation and is fighting for a wild card spot on the road is not a disaster nor a catastrophe, and it should not dramatically alter the perception you had of the team two days ago.
Zoom out. Comparatively speaking, take a look at recent fates of three other NL contenders over the last few weeks.
- Mets: They’ve lost 12 out of 14 and have fallen five games behind the Phils in the NL East. Worse than that, after blowing a 6-0 lead by allowing a 9-run fourth inning to Atlanta Wednesday night, New York has just a one-game lead over Cincinnati for the final wild card spot. Their rotation is in tatters, the newly revamped bullpen has yet to find their footing, and the offense remains an inconsistent mess. They are 25-34 on the road, which could be a major problem for them if they’re forced to play the wild card round away from home.
- Dodgers: They led the NL West by 9 games over the Padres entering July 4. They now trail San Diego in the standings by one game after getting swept by the Angels in Anaheim. Remember how upset you all were when they took two out of three from the Phils at Citizens Bank Park a couple weeks ago? Well, at least the Phillies didn’t get swept. Mookie Betts has struggled all season long, and the pitching staff continues to be decimated by injuries. They are 10-14 in the second half and 15-21 since the start of July.
- Cubs: Chicago is 11-12 since the All Star Break, which isn’t awful, but given the ridiculous hot streak by the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cubs have not only fallen out of first place, they trail the Brewers by 7.5 games. They led by 6.5 in mid-June. In other words, Chicago is now fully playing for that top wild card spot. Pete Crow-Armstrong, the best story in the National League through the first half, has lost his MVP luster in August, hitting .073/.095/.098, 3-for-his last 41, with just one walk and 15 strikeouts. No team in the NL had a better offense in the first half, but their 87 runs entering Tuesday were the third-fewest in MLB since July 18.
The Brewers are on one of the most ridiculous heaters we’ve ever seen, with a tremendous pitching staff and an offense that doesn’t have much power but is filled with a lineup in which every player has an OPS somewhere between .750 and .850. But it’s unreasonable to think Milwaukee will sustain this pace for much longer. They are 26-4 over their last 30 games. Are they peaking too soon? And the Padres have been on a very nice run since the All Star break, taking advantage of the Dodgers’ issues. At 69-52, their .570 winning percentage is just a half-game behind where the Phillies are at, 69-51, .575.
By the end of the weekend, you should feel good once again. The Washington Nationals are 10-20 in their last 30 games and have the second-worst record in the National League. The Mets, meanwhile, host the red-hot Mariners for a three-game series in Queens. The Nats’ pitching staff is one of the worst in baseball, which should allow even this up-and-down, platoon-laden Phillies lineup to feast.
As we zoom out, we should breathe easier.
The Phils are in as good a position as one could have hoped when the season began. They still have a five-game lead with a great shot at earning the No. 2 seed in the National League and a bye past the wild card round. They have six viable-to-excellent starting pitchers, an embarrassment of riches that few teams can match. Sure, they need Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez to recover some lost velocity, but they say they’re not injured, so one can hope they will grow more effective over the next few starts. And the new-look bullpen has done an outstanding job, with Jose Alvarado expected to join them in the near future.
Don’t let two bad losses to the Reds change how you felt about the team on Tuesday morning.
