Where were you on July 25, 2015? I was at sea. My family has a passion for cruising and that is the most memorable cruise date for me. I didn’t see Cole Hamels no-hit the Cubs that day. I sometimes like to imagine that I live in some alternate universe where the Cubs haven’t been no-hit since Sandy Koufax’s perfect game back in 1965. One way or the other, given how many seasons the Cubs were bad, it’s pretty wild that they’ve only been no-hit once in the last 60 years. Off the top of my head, given two
significant work stoppages, one pandemic and the lengthening of the schedule, that’s close to 9,500 games and only no-hit once?
Anyway, that’s a long way of saying that I returned from sea this year on July 26. I missed basically a week of mostly bad Cubs baseball, other than one game started by Matthew Boyd. I suspect I’m going to have some words about Matthew Boyd, Cy Young dark horse before the end of the season. I don’t think there is a run away and hide Cy Young candidate in the NL. I also think Boyd is unlikely to win it. But little question he’s pitching himself into the conversation.
Aside from that, there was a lot of frustration. Games were lost that you’d have thought, on paper, that they were pretty likely to win. Mental note that people only want games played on paper when they have a pretty good team. No one ever throws it back when you win games against great pitchers or good teams. Certainly no one throws it back when you come roaring back from seemingly insurmountable gaps. One of the charms of baseball will always be how many times David beats Goliath over the course of a season. Of course, Goliath wins most of the time, but there is so much numerosity to baseball that there are many David stories and nearly every team experiences one or both sides of those games.
Probably the most important thing that has happened this week is that the Milwaukee Brewers lost their invincibility spell. After 11 consecutive wins, they’ve now lost three of four. If they want to go into a little funk that carries them through the first half of next week, that would be terrific. Talk about David stories. That team is yet another example of the sum of the parts far outweighing the sum of the pieces. The best baseball pundits can’t really cleanly articulate why that team sits amongst the best in baseball. Yet here we are.
I applauded stealing Craig Counsell from the Brewers because I thought he was the central reason that they continued to over achieve seemingly every year. I feel like we’ve seen a lot of what he is capable of this year. But he was far from the whole operation, because they’ve just kept chugging along. The pixie dust that was once the trademark of the Cardinals has relocated to the North and the Brewers show no sign of wanting to give it back. I hate to ever say it, but that’s one of the best run organizations in any sport.
The trades haven’t started yet, at least for the Cubs, so I’m going to the Cubs storylines that more or less make up the potential shopping list, in no particular order.
Key Storylines:
- Starting Pitching: This held true. There wasn’t a lot of good starting pitching recently, but there was in the one win against the Royals and then Cade Horton was terrific (again) in this one against the White Sox.
- Relief Pitching: Ryan Pressly allowed a run in the ninth, but the game was already all but over. Brad Keller and Caleb Thielbar were five up five down prior to that.
- Homer Over Reliance: Two homers accounted for half of the six runs (the first half). They had 10 hits, one a double. They drew three walks and a hit batter. There were no stolen bases.
- Third Base Production: Matt Shaw was 1-3 with a two-run homer and a walk, driving in three. He is decreasing the pressure to grab Eugenio Suárez if the price is too steep. I think the Cubs absolutely have to grab a third baseman, but if Shaw stays hot, they can consider a second tier bat.
- Dansby Swanson: Batted seventh. 1-4 with a single. That single came with two outs and the bases loaded and plated two runs. I’ll be just so shocked (sarcasm) if Dansby’s numbers normalize a bit with runners in scoring position down the stretch. This is a complete non-story with him batting seventh. His defense makes him incredibly valuable. The issue was that he just isn’t particularly a middle of the order caliber bat, even if he looks a lot like the guys that batted there throughout the 80’s.
- Opposing starter: Righty who did quite well stifling the Cubs. Just three hits over five innings and six strikeouts (no walks). The White Sox did throw three different lefty relievers at the Cubs. They faced 13 batters, allowed three hits and one run. The real damage was done against two righty relievers. So mixed bag. Cubs sit at 47-26 versus righty starters and 14-17 versus lefty. I will remain stunned if the top teams in the NL don’t all add at least one lefty arm.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 114, 31 BF
- Sox: 161, 41 BF
The Cubs allowed fewer than 13 pitches per inning, a very strong pitching effort. Ryan Pressly allowed the run. A veteran with a six-run lead threw 12 strikes among 16 pitches. I get his tenuous role on the team, but this game won’t be a significant consideration. At 16 pitches, Ryan threw more pitches than either of the other two relievers. All should be available Sunday after the “B” team threw Friday in a blowout loss. The Cubs top relievers haven’t pitched in days.
The White Sox threw just under 18 pitches per inning. That’s generally going to get you into trouble and this was no exception. Two Sox relievers threw 24 and 25 pitches. That’s probably feasible to throw again Sunday. I didn’t look at Friday’s box score, but the Sox should have a reasonable number of options on Sunday. Of course, this time of the year, there is always the chance of real time trades. The Sox might trade some of their pitching away over the next few days.
Three Stars:
- I think this Cade Horton start is worthy of the top spot. 19 outs, no runs. 22 batters faced. He only struck out three, but also only walked one. Horton has definitely flashed the ability that made him a first-round pick.
- Ian Happ had two hits and a walk. Among the two hits was the homer that broke the scoreless tie. He scored twice. wRC+ up to 103. Well off of his career mark of 115 or the 120ish he’s had three straight years. I’ve seen increasing calls to waive a player who has won multiple gold gloves and has a league average bat (and is under contract).
- Matt Shaw makes it three former first round choices. Shaw had a two-run homer, three runs batted in and a walk. His wRC+ has reached 86. Fangraphs shows him as a positive fielder and a positive baserunner. He is pretty hot right now. And I’d still absolutely grab another third baseman.
Game 104, July 26: Cubs 6, Sox 1 (61-43)
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FangraphsReminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Cade Horton (.380). 6⅓ IP, 22 BF, 4 H, BB, 0 ER, 3 K (W 4-3)
- Hero: Ian Happ (.279). 2-3, HR, BB, RBI, 2 R
- Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.144). 1-3, HR, BB, 3 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.092). 1-3, BB, R
- Goat: Kyle Tucker (-.090). 1-5
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.080). 1-5, 2B, R
WPA Play of the Game: Matt Shaw’s two-run homer with two outs in the seventh inning gave the Cubs a three run lead. (.215)
*Sox Play of the Game: With first and third and one out in the fifth inning, Aaron Civale got Nico Hoerner out without any movement of the runners. (.089)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Reese McGuire received 99 of 161 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +28
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +16
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Nico Hoerner -8
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -20
- Dansby Swanson -22.33
- Seiya Suzuki -28
Note that Matt Shaw gained 5.33 while I was gone and then one more point tonight. He’s found some exit velocity. Let’s see if he can keep it going. Also, Matthew Boyd sneaking up on the lead.
Up Next: The third and final game of the series on the south side and sixth overall. After sweeping the Wrigley part of the series, the Cubs have already won the season series and will look to record a fifth win.
Ben Brown (4-7, 6.48, 81⅓ IP) has had a garish season. Last time out, he was tabbed for six runs in four innings. That was actually slightly better than the time before when he allowed eight over five. One would imagine he won’t have a very long leash. He’s never faced the Sox. He has a 7.99 in seven day game appearances, covering 32⅔ innings. Cover your eyes and hope for the best.
Grant Taylor (0-1, 3.93, 18⅓ IP) will be the opener on Sunday for the White Sox. This is his rookie season and he’s never seen the Cubs, I see no value to throwing a righty opener against the Cubs. You run the risk of the lefty-heavy Cubs lineup putting a crooked number up in the first inning and they’ll just leave those guys in there without much drop off. I will say that Taylor has some reverse split action going this year. I kind of expect the Cubs to ambush Taylor.
We shall see. Let’s make it five wins and pressure the Brewers to bounce back or trail the Cubs heading into their head-to-head series.
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