Wait a second. Will the New York Mets be in the World Series this year for the first time since 2015? It sure does seem like a possibility. Their anonymous pitching is practically as good as it was during that magical run with Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. And, this year’s squad is hitting a fair bit better than that average-ish bunch that enabled Chris Heston to no-hit them. Pete Alonso is on fire. Juan Soto is anything but “Juan So-So.”
But the San Francisco Giants just took
two out of three against a bad Atlanta team, see, and they’re hosting the Mets rather than facing them on the road, so... this will be an easy series, right?
Confidence and momentum are often interlinked and this season with the Giants, because we so want the team to reclaim its glory days of the 2010s and so much want Buster Posey to succeed, that the mood seems to be to take all positive signs as the start of a trend and to ditch all negative signs as a mere fluke. To wit: the Giants did lose six in a row before winning two out of three on their 2-4 road trip coming out of the All-Star break. Reporter and podcaster Kerry Crowley in the San Francisco Standard yesterday:
The Giants have six games in the next 10 days against the Mets, and I think the team that gains an edge will ultimately snag the third wild-card spot in the National League. [...] The Giants have more pitching than the Mets, so unless New York lands at least one more quality arm, I’ll take Devers’ Giants over Juan Soto’s Mets with a final total of 87 wins.
The Mets have good pitching. In fact, it’s probably as good as the Giants’. By fWAR, the Mets have the edge (11.1 to 10.4 — 9th and 13th in MLB, respectively), by ERA it's a virtual tie but the Mets still lead (3.59 to 3.62) by virtue of allowing fewer runs overall (406 to the Giants’ 412). The Giants lead in FIP and xFIP (3.63 to 3.81) and in xFIP (3.84 to 3.99). The Mets are also slightly ahead in K/9 (8.67 to 8.64) and groundball rate (46% to 45.7%) but not in a way that says one is better than the other. At worst, they’re evenly matched, and that’s ignoring the reality that the Giants’ rotation might be leaking oil... or, at least, is on its way to that.
Of course, the Mets don’t play in the NL West, which has 2 of the top 10 lineups in MLB. Oh wait — that’s because the Mets are 1 of the top 10 offenses in MLB. Division rival Phillies are in there as well. So, it’s hard to say that the Giants have the edge the rest of the season and even in this head-to-head matchup unless you want to believe.
But belief is everything, right? I was in New York in 2015 and found myself talking about the Mets with somebody behind a counter. He was so sure that the team would bungle things and fall out of the race. I was just as certain that they would be fine — but I was a dumb tourist from California, I didn’t know what I was talking about. I didn’t have the experience of so many Mets collapses. I wasn’t familiar with their failure game.
I was riding high on three Giants titles and so my frame of reference was that great pitching and just enough hitting would be all they’d need to go far. These Mets aren’t those Mets, nor are they the 2010 Giants, and the 2025 Giants are unlike any of those championship era teams, too — at least, for the moment, there’s no easy 1:1 comparison. Removing historical comps from this breakdown: the Mets went 4-2 on their homestand that opened up their post-break play. The Giants 2-4 on their road trip. But the Mets have been great at home this year (37-16) and the Giants have been better on the road than they’ve been (26-29 to 22-28). Oh, actually, one last historical reference for this preview: the Mets haven’t won a series at Oracle Park since 2018.
About a month ago, Justin Verlander tangled up an historically awful White Sox squad in the midst of what looked like the end of the road for him and instead he’s wound up saving face to a point where he’s not the problem with the rotation. The Giants winning two out of three against an awful Atlanta in the midst of what looked like another second half fade away might be a similar turning point. Not that it means the Giants are a lock for the postseason, only that they won’t fade away.
Series overview
Who: New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Friday at 7:15pm PT, Saturday at 6:05pm PT, Sunday at 4pm PT
National broadcasts: ESPN (Sunday)
Projected starters
Friday: Clay Holmes (RHP 8-5, 3.48 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (RHP 9-7, 3.08 ERA)
Saturday: David Peterson (LHP 6-4, 2.90 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 9-4, 2.92 ERA)
Sunday: Kodai Senga (RHP 7-3, 1.79 ERA) vs. TBD
Where they stand
Mets, 59-44 (1st in NL East), 451 RS / 406 RA | Last 10: 6-4 | #3 seed
Giants, 54-49 (3rd in NL West), 431 RS / 412 RA | Last 10: 3-7 | 1.0 GB WC3
Mets to watch
Pete Alonso: He skipped the Home Run Derby for the first time in his career in order to “fully be able to enjoy the festivities” and give himself some actual rest rather than the adrenaline spikes that come with the derby itself. You can imagine this is connected to his contract (a 2-year $54 million deal) which has an opt-out and the whispers from the industry that he’s on the aging 1B/DH curve who is unworthy of a lucrative long-term deal. There’s also the idea that hitters who win the derby slump in the second half, even though Alonso never has:
Career 1st half: .860 OPS
Career 2nd half: .859 OPS
Anyway, after avoiding the Home Run Derby he’s gone 3-for-21 with a home run (.143/.182/.286) which came in the Mets’ win yesterday. He’s hit 7 home runs at Oracle Park for his career, and while the bulk of his damage against the Giants comes when the Giants play in New York, that career .273/.347/.563 line against them is always something to keep in mind.
Francisco Lindor: On Wednesday, he busted out of a career-worst 0-for-31 slump. He has 4 home runs in just 13 games at Oracle to go with an eye-popping slash line of .278/.322/.611.
Clay Holmes: Now, he’s not Logan Webb, but he pitches a bit like Webb in that he’s a sinker-slider (sweeper) guy who gets a lot of groundballs (55.5% to Webb’s 51.8%). His 3.48 ERA is betrayed by a 4.21 FIP thanks to a 3.56 BB/9. That’s about what Robbie Ray allows and it puts them both in the top 10 worst walks per 9 among qualified MLB starters. Batters also make much harder contact. But as an opening pitching matchup, it’ll be an interesting look at the genuine article versus its competition.
Huscar Brazoban: The Mets’ relief corps is buoyed largely by closer Edwin Diaz’s dominance, but second on the staff in innings pitched is a 35-year old with a 4.13 FIP, so I’m using him as the face of the non-Diaz relievers. Just to show what I mean, here’s OPS against by inning:
6th: .784 (Giants: .825)
7th: .688 (Giants: .592)
8th: .698 (Giants: .615)
9th: .630 <— Edwin Diaz pitches here (Giants: .633)
If the Giants’ lineup is picking things up a bit, the opportunity to get back into games exists.
Giants to watch
Rafael Devers: Well, yeah, if he’s healthy enough to be hitting close his career averages, then the Giants really have something and opposing pitchers really have something to fear. It’s amazing what having a great hitter without a platoon split can do for a lineup, and if it’s the case that he’s a better hitter when he plays the field, then being the first baseman for the first time at Oracle Park could create some real sizzle.
Wilmer Flores & Dominic Smith: Two former Mets have the chance to do some damage as pinch-hitters late in the game or, if Flores winds up being the DH, throughout each game.
Joey Lucchesi: Another former Met who has quickly vaulted near the top of the team’s bullpen depth chart with one strong appearance after another. The Mets are like most teams in baseball and have a severely negative split against left-handed pitching (.756 OPS vs. RHP, .672 against LHP).
Willy Adames: He’s done very well against the Mets for his career (.278/.322/.611) with 7 home runs. Over his last 23 games (95 PA), he’s got 6 homers boosting his triple slash line to an eye-pleasing .305/.400/.610.
Prediction time
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