For much of the first half, the Mets have been carried by their starting rotation. Through much of the team’s first 97 games, their rotation led MLB in ERA, before finally slipping to second place recently, falling behind the division rival Phillies. Injuries have stalled their momentum a bit, and their depth has been tested following injuries to Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning, but with Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea back in the rotation as of last week, things should be stabilizing a bit as the team begins
the stretch run.
The Mets also face an intriguing question: What the hell should they do with Clay Holmes? The right-hander has been a pleasant surprise for New York. I say that not because he hasn’t gotten results in the past, because he certainly has. However, when the team took a chance by signing him to a three-year, $38 million contract in the offseason to be a starting pitcher, more than a few eyebrows were raised across the league. The value of the contract is well below what someone of his talent level would normally make as a starter, so it was a shrewd move by the team’s front office, provided it would work out.
Holmes had become a dependable reliever/closer for the Yankees, but he hadn’t started a major league game since 2018 with the Pirates. Those fears have been assuaged, as he’s posted a 3.31 ERA in 19 starts for New York while averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing. He is a big reason why the team’s rotation has flourished and weathered the absence of Senga and Manaea.
However, with 19 starts under his belt—for reference, he had only made four starts in his career prior to signing with the Mets—comes a lot of mileage on his right arm. He’s already north of 100 innings after throwing 63 2/3 innings last year, and 63 innings each of the two seasons prior to that. His career high is 70, which he’s eclipsed (and then some). The Mets have never made it publicly known whether Holmes has any sort of innings limit, or whether they’re going to ride it out as long as they can, but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t some sort of cap, and with him likely to make another 12-14 starts (barring injury), he’s likely to approach 180 or so innings at this rate. Then there’s the playoffs to consider, and we saw last year how Manaea, who eclipsed his career high in innings by a considerable amount, tired out in the NLCS against the Dodgers.
The Mets are likely already actively monitoring this situation, and just because they have not shared their plans does not mean they haven’t already begun executing on their plan. Holmes is set to begin his second half on Saturday against the Reds, and it’s already interesting that the club chose him for this game instead of someone like Senga, who has more rest heading into Saturday. There’s a number of ways the club can proceed here with their 2025 Opening Day starter.
Stay the course
This is the easiest option. The team worked with Holmes to transition him to a starter, and perhaps the intention was for him to carry on the typical workload of a starter (and perhaps this is also what Holmes wants). After all, if you’re paying him to start, you have to imagine he would approach 200 innings without injury.
Pro: Requires no additional action from the Mets. They can just ride with their rotation into the postseason, assuming the results remain steady. This also gives the Mets the rotation they envisioned at the start of the season: Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Frankie Montas, with Paul Blackburn as a sixth option and Tylor Megill expected to return from injury at some point. They can also employ a six man rotation, which they like to do with Senga anyway, and this could benefit Holmes as well—I am looping this into the “Stay the course” strategy since it’s something the Mets have done already.
Con: This carries the chance of regression as his innings climb. Over his past six starts dating back to June 13, he’s posted a 4.20 ERA and a 5.18 FIP, with a 14.0% K% and a 14.0% BB% in 30 innings. For reference, prior to that he owned a 2.95 ERA and a 3.83 FIP, with a 21.5% K% and a 7.6% BB% in 73 1⁄3 innings. His walks have been increasing while he’s not striking batters out at the same clip he was earlier in the season, and he’s surrendering more home runs—after not allowing a homer in his first seven starts, he’s given up 11 over his last 12 outings. His regression has begun essentially since he surpassed his career high in innings, and these trends are troubling.
Limit his innings
Common sense dictates that this is how the Mets will move forward. They could use an opener for his starts and use Holmes as a bulk guy, or just curve his pitch count and keep him to a “five and dive” pitcher. You’re probably going to get the best results from him this way, and it seems things are already trending in this direction—while he has pitched into the sixth in his last three outings, he hasn’t gone more than 5 1⁄3 in any of his previous six starts, and he last pitched into the seventh back on June 7.
Pro: Maximizes his potential while reducing the opportunity for breaking down late in games, and keeps his inning count down. Over 13 or so starts at ~five innings, you can keep him at under 170 innings. If he can limit the damage to one or two earned runs over five, as he has so often done, that puts the team in a good position for a victory in any of his starts.
Con: There is no guarantee that this will keep him fresh into the postseason, and this is likely to tax their bullpen even more than it already has been. Should they go this route, they’re likely going to have to add at least one, and preferably two, high-impact arms at the deadline to improve their bullpen, which has struggled as of late beyond Edwin Díaz and Reed Garrett.
Move Holmes to the bullpen
This is an option that is likely not being considered, but it is interesting. Holmes was an elite reliever for the Yankees, posting a K% of between 25% and 28% in each of the past four seasons out of the pen, and he was an All Star as a reliever in both 2022 and 2024. It could be a non-starter for both the club and the pitcher, both of whom signed a contract for him to become a starting pitcher, presumably because it’s what both sides wanted. However, with the club in clear need of relief help at the deadline, they could solve that problem internally by transitioning Holmes back to the pen, at least for the remainder of this season. You could make a strong argument that his greatest value to New York would be setting up Díaz in October, rather than providing four or five innings and putting a greater strain on their pen.
Pro: There’s proven data that his stuff plays out of the pen, and he has provided strong results in that role in New York. He especially excelled last year in relief during October, where he posted a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings for the Yankees after losing his closer’s job to Luke Weaver during the regular season. This could essentially lock up the final two innings for the Mets in postseason games, which gives them a huge edge over their opponents, and if their rotation is strengthened with the return of Manaea and Senga, it could give them a dangerous group of pitchers that can go up against any team in October.
Con: This creates a hole in the rotation, one they would presumably look to fill at the deadline. The question here is whether it’s easier to fill in the gaps in the pen or in the rotation. If it costs more to acquire a high-leverage starter than a high-leverage reliever, which it presumably will, and the club is not ready to meet that cost, this may not be a path they’re willing to travel.
The final option could be keeping Holmes on the sidelines for a bit to save innings on his arm, but given that the team has run into trouble with the league with this method in the past, it’s likely not something they’ll consider.
All in all, Holmes’ innings is something the team will have to address. Holmes has been a key reason the Mets are where they are—maintaining a record that has consistently been ten-plus games over .500—but they will need him in October if they want any chance of winning the World Series. Figuring out the best way to maximize his value this season will be paramount, and is something the club will need to decide on sooner rather than later.
More from amazinavenue.com:
- Mets Morning News for March 13, 2019
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- Devin Mesoraco is back after a decent 2018 with the Mets
- Jed Lowrie Resumes Baseball Activites
- Mets spring training postional battles (through March 11, 2019)
- Open Thread: Mets vs. Astros, spring training, 3/13/19
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