The Major League Baseball world is still buzzing at this point in the aftermath of the All-Star week festivities. Whether it’s the marathon of the MLB Draft, Cal Raleigh’s booming Home Run Derby victory, or the National League’s triumph in the first-ever swing-off at an All-Star Game, the week has offered quite a bit to discussion. But in the shadow of the All-Star festivities is the MLB Trade Deadline, which is slowly approaching on July 31st.
With the Yankees in second place in the AL East, two
games behind the Blue Jays and just one up on the surging Red Sox, there are plenty of players who could help them out. One is in the rotation of a struggling NL Central team, and his name is Mitch Keller.
2025 Statistics: 20 starts, 119 IP, 3.48 ERA, 123 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 3.32 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 18.7 K%, 5.5% BB%, 3.81 xERA, 2.6 fWAR
2024 FanGraphs Depth Charts Rest of Season Projections: 12 GS, 72.0 IP, 7.69 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, .303 BABIP, 4.11 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.1 fWAR
Contract Status: Signed through the 2028 season for five years at $77 million
The Pittsburgh Pirates are an organization in turmoil, but as a team, they have improved after the firing of Derek Shelton in early May and the promotion of interim skipper Don Kelly. Of course, their roster is very flawed, and the dark cloud of the “When is Paul Skenes going to eventually leave us for a team that is willing to pay him” discourse is still hanging over heads, but there are some pieces that work, especially within the pitching staff.
Although the Pirates' bullpen has been strong, today we’re considering Keller, their No. 2 starter, as a possible Yankees rotation add. With Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt both out for the season and Luis Gil still weeks away from returning, it’s evident that Max Fried and Carlos Rodón could use a little more help. It’s been a roller coaster for the back end of the five-man group.
Despite a 3-10 record that is more a product of the Pirates’ terrible offense, Keller has been as effective as he ever has during his career. His 2.6 fWAR through the first half of the season is on pace to break his best total for a season in his career, even better than his All-Star 2023. If he maintains his 3.48 ERA through the second half, it would be the lowest in his career for a full season. Keller also bring a much-appreciated air of reliability — he is one of the healthiest pitchers in the sport, having hit the injured list just once since the start of 2018 (and that was in 2020). To wit, he is tied for the MLB lead with 20 starts and ranks fourth in the NL with 119 innings.
Keller would be a bit of a different pitcher for the Yankees rotation if he does end up in the Bronx. He doesn’t strike many players out like a Rodón, Gil, or even a Max Fried on occasion. In fact, his strikeouts per nine innings is the lowest in his career at 6.96, with his second-lowest being 7.81 in 2022. He also has the highest ground-ball rate since that same season, so he sometimes has to rely on his defense behind him.
The secret to Keller’s success this season has been his fastball, which sits in the 97th percentile in fastball run value across MLB. His breaking run value is also well above average, sitting in the 73rd percentile, and he has limited the number of walks he has dolled out to opposing lineups, with his walk rate in the 87th percentile league-wide.
Keller has used seven pitches across the 2025 season: a four-seam fastball, sweeper, slider, sinker, curveball, changeup, and cutter. He would bring a different kind of arsenal to the Yankees' rotation if they decide to pursue a trade for the right-hander, and though K’s aren’t his specialty, he can use his pitch mix to get them.
Again, even if Gil makes a healthy return, the Yankees’ rotation would appreciate a boost, and if it works out, Keller would be under team control until the end of the 2028 campaign due to the extension he signed in February 2024. If the Pirates feel comfortable enough in the ascendant pitchers in their system to make a match, then Keller could be just who New York needs to reinforce the rotation and help the Bombers return to the playoffs and World Series.
More from pinstripealley.com:
- Overall thoughts on the Yankees’ 2025 MLB Draft class
- Futures Game: Lombard doubles, walks, steals, and swears
- Yankees 1, Cubs 4: Imanaga stifles Bombers in first-half finale
- Yankees Trade Deadline Coverage
- The hitting genius of Aaron Judge
- Pinstripe Alley’s Top 100 Yankees
- 2000 Yankees Diary: The 25th Anniversary of MLB’s Last Three-peat
