Series Preview/Know Your Foe: Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros

Orioles Standings: 

• 55-66 (5th in the AL East) 15.5 GB, 9.5 GB of the Final AL WC 
• Road Record: 25-36 (Astros Home Record: 37-25)
• Record vs. AL West: 14-10 (Astros vs AL East: 10-9)
• Last 10:  4-6 [LLLWWLLLWW] (HOU: 6-4 [LWWLWLWWLW])
• 2025 Record vs. Houston: First meeting
• All-Time Record vs. Houston: 34-47
• Playoff Record: N/A

Orioles Season to Date: Brought to you by the word “disappointing”. Whether you want to call them or Atlanta the biggest busts of the 2025 season is up to you. Still, for a team coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, the goal was actually winning a playoff game (carrying an active 10-game playoff losing streak), if not a full-on series. Barring the biggest second half surge of all time, that goal is tabled until 2026. Most of those O’s players on expiring contracts found themselves

with new work addresses to start August. At least Baltimore managed to hang on to the core of players they still hope will get the franchise to its first World Series since 1983. In particular, the fall of the O’s came from a horrid start to the year from the pitcher’s mound. Injury and ineffectiveness doomed the O’s before the calendar turned to summer. That and the promising bats seemingly continued their slump from late last season. The horrid start to the season cost Manager Brandon Hyde his job in May, and while the team did show some improvement after his departure, the trade deadline solidified Baltimore’s intent to focus on the future.

Orioles Leaders

Offense: 

• HR:  3 x Tied at 14 (SS Gunnar Henderson, 2B Jackson Holliday, 3B Jordan Westburg) [Team leader is still LF Ramon Laureano (traded) with 15]
• RBI:   SS Gunnar Henderson (51)
• BA:  SS Gunnar Henderson (.283)
• OPS: SS Gunnar Henderson (.822)

Pitching: 

• ERA: Tomoyuki Sugano (4.17)
• Wins: Tomoyuki Sugano (9) 
• Saves: Felix Bautista (19)
• WHIP: Dean Kermer (1.25)

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)  

• Friday, Aug 15 @7:10 p.m. CDT: Brandon Young (0-6, 6.70 ERA) vs. Framber Valdez (11-5, 2.97 ERA)
• Saturday, Aug 16 @ 6:10 p.m. CDT:  Cade Povich (2-6, 4.95 ERA) vs. Jason Alexander (3-1, 5.02 ERA) 
• Sunday, Aug 17 @ 1:10 p.m. CDT: Dean Kermer (8-9, 4.17 ERA) vs. Cristian Javier (1-0, 3.60 ERA)  

Orioles Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTFIELD) (BA/OBP/SLG)

• C: Adley Rutschman (.232/.318/.386)
• 1B: Coby Mayo (.210/.292/.355)
• 2B: Jackson Holliday (.248/.301/.387)
• 3B: Jordan Westburg (.265/.316/.463)
• SS: Gunnar Henderson (.283/.352/.468)
• LF: Ryan Noda (.106/.276/.170)       
• CF: Dylan Carlson (.193/.243/.292)
• RF: Jermiah Jackson (.267/.290/.433)
• DH: Ryan Mountcastle (.246/.283/.367)                   

Orioles Offense: The potential for hitting goodness is there, but the overall performance this season has not even come close to matching the talent. They rank in the bottom half of most hitting stats (20th for runs, 22nd for BA, 24th for OBP, 15 for Slugging). The lineup is led by Gunnar Henderson, the next great Baltimore left infielder. One-time uber-prospect Jackson Holliday has overcome his MLB-level struggles and is a major part of the new lineup, growing into the incredible hype that has always surrounded him. The trade deadline saw Baltimore divest itself of many of their veteran performers, to include long-time stalwart Cedric Mullins, All-Star Ryan O’Hearn and Roman Laureano. Once on base, the O’s rank in the middle of the MLB pack at 16^th in base-stealing. Perhaps that number jumps this series, as due to injuries and the aforementioned trades, some newer, younger faces will populate the lineup.   

Orioles Pitching/Defense: This is what severely hindered the team to start the year. Things got off to an ominous start when top of the rotation arm Grayson Rodriguez, trying to come back from injury, missed the start of the season due to injury and has since been ruled out for 2025. Other arms like Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish are working their way back from significant arm surgeries but will not be back for this series. Their starters, at least those that are healthy, well, they do pitch, and every now and then, they can hit the strike zone. The overall staff has somewhat improved since that horrid start, although one of their better improved performers is now in Detroit (Uncle Charlie Morton), and even with the slight uptick, they are near the bottom in key pitching stats (27th in ERA, 27^th in WHIP, 28^th in BAA). The bullpen is also in the lower tier, rated 25^th in ERA, although some of the arms slated for primary bullpen performance got routed to emergency starting status. Unfortunately, Baltimore’s already weakened pitching staff took some more recent hits, as starter Zach Eflin and closer Felix Bautista will end their 2025 season on IL. With the “Mountain” sidelined, the high-leverage/closer arms for the bullpen will bounce between Yennier Cano and Keegan Akin, along with a hodge-podge of other arms that weren’t expected to play such a significant role in relief. The defense is not helping the staff that much, rated 24^th in runs saved and 13^th worst in the league for committing errors.

Most Dangerous Player: SS Gunner Henderson. During the recent Baltimore fire-sale, those with an expiring contract got the heave-ho. However, those who figured to be around past 2025 will remain. Of that group of core players, Henderson has emerged as perhaps the most consistent threat. The 2018 second-rounder has evolved into one of the more dangerous bats in game. He was a potential MVP candidate last season and likely will remain so as long as he remains healthy in the lineup. At this point, it is safe to say that he has surpassed fellow draft classmate Adley Rutschman as the best young player on the team roster. 

Injuries:  The O’s IL roster was starting to lighten up…then it got beefed up…not at all helpful for Baltimore. (and Houston still has their own injuries concerns, with Hader now on the IL): 

• P Zac Eflin (back); 15-IL; Projected Return: 2026
• OF Tyler O’Neill (wrist); added Aug 6; Projected Return: late August/early September
• OF Colton Cowser (concussion); 7 Day-IL; Projected Return: mid-August
• P Albert Suarez (shoulder); 60-IL; Projected Return: late August
• P Felix Bautista (shoulder); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
• P Grayson Rodriguez (elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
• C Maverick Handley (wrist); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: mid-August
• P Tyler Wells (forearm); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: late August
• P Kyle Bradish (forearm); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: late August
• P Colin Selby (hamstring); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: September
• P Scott Blewett (elbow); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD
• C Gary Sanchez (knee); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: September
• P Cody Poteet (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD
• Utility Jorge Mateo (hamstring); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: early September

Intangibles: With the O’s organization effectively punting until 2026, it will be interesting to see how this relatively young core handles playing out the string after spending the past two years prepping for the postseason. Setbacks are hard on a team, especially when they rocketed up from losing to winning and then right back to losing. Best case, this season is a blip, ala the 2016 Astros, and 2026, Baltimore, with a more effective free agency strategy (especially where pitching is concerned), will be back in playoff contention. Elias made the most of a botched 2024-25 offseason with his trade deadline moves, but does he get a chance to right the ship that he steered to playoff contention…and steered right back into contention for a top draft pick? 

Series Outlook:  Stop me if you’ve heard this before…a struggling team, with a mid offense and a bottom tier pitching staff, comes into Houston to face off against a playoff-minded squad…well, there is what the numbers say should happen, and then there’s what actually happens (insert trigger warning about the Guardians and the Athletics here). Also, Baltimore has won a few series at Minute Maid/Daikin, even when they were intentionally bad. The O’s come into this matchup with no pressure on them. However, all of the pressure is on Houston. They’ve lost their one-time 7-game cushion in the AL West (Seattle tied for the AL West lead before Baltimore won two straight to up the lead back 1.5 games), and Seattle shows little signs of falling into their standard late-season collapse.  Yes, Houston still holds solid playoff positioning, but the margin for error to even hold on to a playoff spot is not all that much anymore.  Look for some major dogfights, even as these games have no right to be that way.

How to Watch/Listen:

NATIONAL COVERAGE: None projected at this time.  

HOUSTON: 

• Watch: Space City Home Network
• Listen: KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD-2, TUDN 93.3 FM

BALTIMORE:

• Watch: MASN 2, MASN+
• Listen on: 98 Rock 97.9 FM, WBAL 1090 AM