Happy Thursday, everyone. At least one betting analyst isn’t too bullish on the Tide this season, and he’s blaming the uncertainty at QB.
Alabama’s schedule this season features out-of-conference games at Florida State and against Wisconsin. Also on the schedule are visits to Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The Crimson Tide will play host to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
It’s a typical gauntlet of an SEC schedule, and it’s too easy to find three losses for me. Maybe under Nick Saban, I’d
ADhave more confidence in Alabama’s ability to navigate the schedule, but it’s a tough ask for a team who doesn’t know who will start under center a little more than a month before kickoff.
It’s fair to question Alabama’s quarterback situation, but it’s also important to remember the opponents’ situations as well. South Carolina feels good about returning LaNorris Sellers, and they should. It isn’t like he’s proven against top opponents, though. Sellers struggled in Tuscaloosa and got very little going through the air against Clemson. He did rip the Tigers on the ground, but more than half of his season’s rushing yards came in three games. And he was positively putrid against Ole Miss.
We saw Garrett Nussmeier play against Alabama at home last season and it wasn’t pretty. From a passer rating perspective he was remarkably consistent in four games against the Tide, Florida, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss with objectively bad numbers between 110-120. Perhaps his weapons are that much better, and perhaps an offensive line with four new starters will prove to be elite, but we’re assuming that he will substantially improve on those numbers in Tuscaloosa? Arch Manning is getting a ton of hype based on his reputation and three starts against UTSA, LaMo and Mississippi State. I’m old enough to remember when Quinn Ewers was the best QB prospect in a decade, too.
We’ll see how it all plays out, but it certainly seems that a lot of folks are assuming that Ty will struggle while ignoring observed struggles and/or inexperience from others.
Chris Low says that Georgia is Alabama’s “swing game.”
Swing game: Alabama at Georgia, Sept. 27
Alabama closes the month of September by traveling to Georgia on Sept. 27, and it doesn’t figure to be a cushy first month for the Tide. They open the season at Florida State on Aug. 30 and face Wisconsin at home two weeks prior to the trip to Georgia. A loss at Georgia wouldn’t necessarily be a crippling blow, especially since Georgia hasn’t lost a game at home in five years, but winning in Athens would afford Alabama a mulligan (or two) if the Tide were to trip up the rest of the way against somebody they shouldn’t lose to. — Chris Low
I’m not sure I agree with him here. I think that Alabama has a decent shot to win in Athens, but it’s always difficult to play a top tier opponent on the road. The swing games to me are LSU and Tennessee, but as we saw last season any game can be a swing game if they don’t show up. Winning all of the games in which they are clear favorites should be the first priority for 2025.
Thomas Castellanos knows there is no going back now.
“We stand on what I said,” the Florida State quarterback said Wednesday at ACC Media Days. “I said what I said and we stand on that. I don’t mean no disrespect to none of those guys at Alabama or nothing like that. It was just I have confidence in my guys, the work we’ve been putting in, preparing, and the preparation we’ve been putting together.
“So, that’s all that was. No disrespect to those guys but we stand on what I said.”
Best of luck, kid.
If you care to acknowledge Cowherd, he thinks that coaching the Browns or Saints would intrigue Saban.
The rumor was disputed all week at SEC Media Days, and was capped by Kristen Saban posting to her Instagram story that Saban was not returning to the college football world.
However, despite the rumor being put to rest by Kristen, Fox Sports analyst Colin Cowherd reported his own inquiries about Nick Saban’s potential return to coaching in the NFL.
“The worst kept secret in the south is Jimmy Haslam leans heavily on the Manning family. Arch Manning is part of the family. Nick Saban is close to Haslam and the Manning’s,” Cowherd said during his Wednesday show. “If Saban could land a top 10, he would take a phone call from the NFL. Two teams are guaranteed to be awful in the NFL, the Browns and Saints. Saban coached in Cleveland and at LSU. The Manning’s are royalty in New Orleans and the Manning’s are royalty to Haslam, who loves headlines. This is not a conspiracy theory.”
Pat Surtain has a good Saban story.
“We were just in one team period,” Surtain said. “I got in there. The first play that was called was that exact play. In my head, I’m going through it. I’m like what do I do to this formation, what’s my role? What’s this coverage? In my head I’m thinking. I went into this one specific zone. Obviously I f...ed it up. I knew I f...ed it up because the guy I was supposed to cover was wide open. Next thing you know, I’m like man I f...ed that up. I go back to the huddle. Next thing you know, I see a whole straw bucket hat fly on the ground.”
That’s bad news. Saban incoming.
“He’s like ‘god damnit Patrick,’” Surtain recalled. “‘We went over this in the film meeting room. You’ve got to get that shit together.’ Then I looked and I was like yep I f...ed that up. He was on my ass about it that whole day.”
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti continues to push for four autobids, and he’s on an island with that request.
Four auto-bids from the Big Ten with the possibility of more via at-large spots from Pettiti’s point of view has not gone over well in the eyes of other Power Four commissioners.
Will the Big Ten, winners of consecutive national championships, eventually budge? Is the SEC going to finally add a ninth conference game to match its Big Ten brethren and perhaps get the opposing league to agree to its preferred format? These are questions that need to be answered to move forward at the negotiating table.
Sankey said the SEC “has the best hand to play” in the expansion debate and that his league won’t change its opinion on how future brackets should look. He has advocated for expansion, but also knows if the current format stays in place that his league will have opportunity to win titles — as it has done six times since the first year of the playoff in 2014.
Petitti knows that his league will get three bids, at most, in most seasons because the league is ridiculously top heavy. For the second consecutive season, Indiana canceled a series with a “Power Four” team - Virginia this time, a sub-.500 ACC squad no less - in favor of another cupcake. Head coach Curt Cignetti had the audacity to claim he was using the “SEC scheduling philosophy” despite the fact that he will now face zero Power Four opponents out of conference which SEC teams aren’t allowed to do. Big Ten officials and coaches may not like the fact that the bottom third of the league in any given year is no better than a pretty good G5 squad, but that’s exactly what the data shows.
Last, Rhett Lashlee thoroughly embarrassed himself with this take at ACC media days.
“The SEC has had the same six schools win the championships since 1964. Not a single one has been different since 1964,” Lashlee said. “That’s top-heavy to me. That’s not depth.”
Lashlee went on to say Miami, at 10-2 last season, deserved a bit in the 12-team field from the ACC.
“I don’t think it’s up for a discussion. I think it should be 16,” Lashlee said. “I don’t think you have to go crazy over that because it is football. We saw last year what the playoff can do. On campus games, fantastic. More exposure, more access and it creates more fanbases.
“There’s only been three leagues to have teams currently in their conference to win a championship since 1990. All of the teams that have won a national championship since 1990 are either in the ACC, Big Ten or the SEC. In the last 15 years, we are tied with the second-most championships with three with the Big Ten. I don’t know why that’s not talked about. If it stays at 12, we are a multiple bid league every year. Miami should have been in last year, there is no question they were one of the 12 best teams in the country last year.”
Eight, or half, of the current SEC teams have won a national title since 1964, and SEC teams won nine of those last 15. Congrats on pointing out the Big 12’s shortcomings, I guess?
That’s about it for now. Have a great day.
Roll Tide.
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