It’s that time of year when the sun is shining bright, the grass is green, and optimism reigns supreme bringing a sense of hope and a positive outlook.
With the first of their allotted 25 practices starting on July 30th, we thought we’d have some fun and check out how realistic some of us are in our expectations for the Florida State Seminoles 2025 football season, and what level of delusional state some of us like to live in. So let’s do our pre-fall camp win-share exercise, the same one we have done
in the past, to see in which of the above categories you fall in.
But first, for the unfamiliar, let’s explain what win shares are. Win shares are a simple exercise where instead of assigning a win or loss for a game, you assign the probability of a given outcome. For example, if you think that FSU has a 50% chance of beating Alabamer, a 92% chance of beating East Texas, and a 100% chance of beating Kent State, your entries would look like this;
Alabama: 0.50
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 0.92
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 1.
After filling in your win percentage for the 12 games listed below, add up those 12 percentages and that total sum is the number of games you are predicting the 2025 FSU football team will win this season.
For example:
TN Staff Member: Excelsius Sanchez
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama: 0.50
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 0.92
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 1.
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia: .73
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami: .58
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt: .65
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford: .88
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest: .80
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson: .50
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech: .75
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State: .69
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida: .50
Excelsius’s win share total: 8.5
Below are the game probabilities and win share totals from some of the experts here on the TN staff.
- TN Staff Member: Tim Alumbaugh
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama: 0.20
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 1.
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 1.
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia: .70
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami: .40
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt: .55
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford: .70
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest: .70
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson: .30
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech: .70
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State: .60
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida: .40
Tim’s win share total: 7.25 - TN Staff Member: Matt Minnick
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama: 0.36
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 1
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 1
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia: .50
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami: .56
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt: .54
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford: .48
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest: .82
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson: .22
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech: .70
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State: .45
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida: .41
Matt’s win share total: 7.04 - TN Staff Member: NoleThruandThru
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama: 0.35
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 0.99
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 0.99
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia: 0.59
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami: 0.40
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt: 0.59
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford: 0.75
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest: 0.70
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson: 0.15
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech: 0.51
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State: 0.49
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida: 0.40
NT&T’s win share total: 6.91 - TN Staff Member: Jordan Silversmith
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama: 0.15
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 1.
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 1
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia: 0.70
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami: 0.35
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt: 0.50
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford: 0.60
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest: 0.80
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson: 0.10
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech: 0.60
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State: 0.40
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida: 0.30
Jordan’s win share total: 6.50 - TN Staff Member: Jon Loesche
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama: 0.15
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 1
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 1
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia: 0.75
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami: 0.35
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt: 0.65
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford: 0.70
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest: 0.85
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson: 0.05
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech: 0.60
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State: 0.40
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida: 0.25
Jon’s win share total: 6.75 - TN Staff Member: Jon Marchant
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama: 0.15
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 0.98
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 0.95
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia: 0.70
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami: 0.45
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt: 0.50
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford: 0.70
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest: 0.60
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson: 0.25
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech: 0.60
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State: 0.45
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida: 0.45
Jon’s win share total: 6.78 wins - TN Staff Member: Frank DeNole
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama: 0.50
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M: 1
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State: 1
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia: 0.87
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami: 0.52
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt: 0.81
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford: 0.90
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest: 0.86
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson: 0.48
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech: 0.84
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State: 0.55
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida: 0.50
Frank’s win share total: 8.83
To play along, copy and paste the schedule below, fill in your %’s, add them up, and paste the result into the comment section. Warning: you may be subjected to ridicule.
TN member: Excelsius Sanchez
Aug 30 (Sat) Alabama:
Sep 6 (Sat) East Texas A&M:
Sep 20 (Sat) Kent State:
Sep 26 (Fri) @ Virginia:
Oct 4 (Sat) Miami:
Oct 11 (Sat) Pitt:
Oct 18 (Sat) @ Stanford:
Nov 1 (Sat) Wake Forest:
Nov 8 (Sat) @ Clemson:
Nov 15 (Sat) Virginia Tech:
Nov 21 (Fri) @ N.C. State:
Nov 29 (Sat) @ Florida:
Your win share total:
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