Restricted free agency has not been kind to the 2021 NBA draft class this offseason.
Quentin Grimes isn’t the only notable restricted free agent who remains on the market. Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey and Cam Thomas also have yet to re-sign with their incumbent teams or sign an offer sheet with other teams. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to envision where those big offer sheets might be coming from, too.
At the moment, the Brooklyn Nets can still create nearly $25 million of cap space even while
keeping Thomas’ cap hold on their books. They’re the only team with that kind of financial flexibility, though. Otherwise, teams are limited to the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception at best unless they find a way to shed significant salary. (Perhaps another insane waive-and-stretch is in order?)
On Thursday, Jake Fischer of The Stein Line Substack reported that the Nets have no plans to pursue the restricted free agents who are still lingering on the market. Instead, they’ve “been active on the trade front” and “appear content on slow-rolling the rest of their offseason accounting” in case other trade opportunities arise.
So… where does that leave Grimes and the Sixers? Let’s break down his potential options.
Re-sign with the Sixers
If cooler heads eventually prevail, this is the most likely outcome.
Heading into free agency, Tony Jones of The Athletic reported that Grimes was “looking for a contract that averages $25 million per season.” To put it kindly, that was delulu given the cap-space landscape around the league this offseason.
Grimes had an incredible two-month run upon his arrival in Philly, but it came as the No. 1 option on a 24-win team that was playing out the string on a lost season. Whenever the Sixers are fully healthy (which happens roughly two games per year), Grimes will be the No. 4 option at best. The Sixers are likely hoping to give him a contract more in that range.
Fischer reported Thursday that the “expectation persists that the sides will ultimately hash out no less than a three-year deal.” On the Hoop Collective podcast, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps said, “I have thought the whole summer this is going to end with him signing a probably two- or three-year deal for a little bit over the mid-level [exception].”
The Sixers’ proximity to the second apron is one of the big wild cards in these negotiations. At the moment, they’re $7.8 million below the first apron and $19.7 million below the second apron. If/when they waive Ricky Council IV, whose $2.2 million salary is fully non-guaranteed until Jan. 10, they can create slightly more wiggle room. The issue is that if the Sixers use the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception, they’d be hard-capped at the $207.8 million second apron.
If the Sixers waive Council and use the taxpayer MLE, they’d be only $16.2 million under the second apron before re-signing Grimes. That’s likely the upper limit of what they’d be willing to pay him as his new starting salary. (It’s also why the Sixers weren’t willing to offer Guerschon Yabusele the taxpayer MLE until they resolved Grimes’ free agency.)
Pursue a sign-and-trade
If Grimes wants a starting salary higher than roughly $16 million on his new contract, he may only have two options: Find a team with enough cap space to sign him to that type of a deal, or attempt to coax the Sixers into a sign-and-trade.
Jones reported earlier in July that the Sixers “splashed cold water on potential sign-and-trade scenarios,” which might make this route a non-starter. Even if the Sixers change their mind in that regard, base-year-compensation rules could complicate a sign-and-trade. Grimes will only count as 50 percent of his new salary in terms of outgoing salary, so the Sixers wouldn’t be allowed to take back a player earning $16-plus million. It thus might be difficult to construct a framework that satisfies the league’s salary-matching rules.
Teams could take Grimes into a trade exception to help mitigate those salary-matching concerns. The Atlanta Hawks did exactly that with Nickeil Alexander-Walker this offseason. However, the Utah Jazz ($26.6 million), Boston Celtics ($22.5 million), Denver Nuggets ($17.3 million) and Miami Heat ($16.8 million) are the only four teams with trade exceptions larger than $16 million at the moment.
Teams also can’t sign restricted free agents to an offer sheet by using a trade exception. The Sixers would have to agree to a sign-and-trade first, which appears unlikely for now.
Sign the qualifying offer
If Grimes is frustrated enough with his negotiations with the Sixers, he could choose the nuclear option by accepting their one-year, $8.7 million qualifying offer instead. That would make him an unrestricted free agent in 2026.
The Washington Wizards have more than $80 million in expiring contracts on their books right now, so they’re looming as a potential cap-space team next offseason. The Nets could be a cap-space team as well, but that’s subject to change depending on what they do with the rest of their cap room this summer.
With more high-profile players signing extensions rather than testing free agency, teams may have less incentive to preserve cap space moving forward. The 2026 market might not be quite as bleak as this year’s was, but there’s no guarantee that teams will be falling over one another to splurge on Grimes next summer. He’d be gambling on himself by taking the qualifying offer.
From Grimes’ perspective, one poorly timed injury could eviscerate his earning potential. Even if he stays healthy, he’s unlikely to have anywhere near the same level of usage in 2025-26 that he did this past season. If he manages to average 20 points per game in a tertiary role, he very well might get larger offers next summer. If his numbers regress amidst a more crowded backcourt, it might be tough for him to find even a full non-taxpayer mid-level deal.
Grimes has earned only $11.2 million across his four-year NBA career to date. His qualifying offer would nearly double his career earnings. But is he willing to turn down a multiyear deal that would secure generational wealth for him and his family?
Pray for a Hail Mary
When free agency began, did anyone expect Myles Turner to end up on the Milwaukee Bucks? One shocking Damian Lillard waive-and-stretch later, that’s exactly what wound up happening.
Could another team pull off a similar Hail Mary to throw a hefty offer sheet at Grimes? It’s possible, although that would be enormously risky for them.
Take the Jazz, for instance. If they waive KJ Martin and Jaden Springer, they could create up to nearly $18.8 million in salary-cap space. They could then use that to sign Grimes to an offer sheet that might be higher than the Sixers feel comfortable matching.
However, to clear that much cap room, they’d have to relinquish their $26.2 million trade exception that they received for trading John Collins to the Los Angeles Clippers. If the Sixers proceeded to match the offer sheet that Grimes signs, the Jazz would have given up that trade exception for nothing. For that reason, they don’t seem like a major threat to sign him.
Fischer mentioned the Phoenix Suns have expressed “exploratory interest” in a sign-and-trade for Kuminga now that they’re out of second-apron prison. If that falls through, could they turn their attention to Grimes instead? Not unless the Sixers agreed to a sign-and-trade, as the Suns are still more than $30 million over the cap at the moment.
Unless the Sixers soften their stance on refusing to entertain sign-and-trades, Grimes’ options appear relatively limited at the moment. Unless he’s willing to bet on himself by taking the qualifying offer, his best option may be a short-term deal with the Sixers that allows him to test free agency again in a few years while still locking in enough money to set him up for life.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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