What's Happening?
The long-standing conflict over Western Sahara is moving towards resolution following France's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory. This development, coupled with Morocco's military advantage, pressures the Sahrawi independence movement, led by the POLISARIO Front, to negotiate autonomy within Morocco. The conflict, which began after Spain's withdrawal in 1975, has left many Sahrawis in refugee camps in Algeria. The U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in 2020 under President Trump further supported Morocco's 2007 autonomy proposal. The POLISARIO's inability to achieve independence militarily has led to a shift towards negotiating peace terms.
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Why It's Important?
France's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty marks a significant shift in international support, potentially ending one of Africa's longest conflicts. This change could improve regional stability by resolving tensions between Morocco and Algeria, which have been exacerbated by the Western Sahara dispute. The resolution of the conflict would impact the lives of thousands of Sahrawis living in refugee camps, offering them a chance for repatriation and integration. The international community's support for Morocco's claims could lead to increased economic development and investment in the region.
What's Next?
Negotiations will focus on the terms of autonomy for Western Sahara within Morocco, addressing issues such as the right of return for Sahrawi refugees and compensation for displaced persons. The POLISARIO will seek additional concessions from Morocco beyond the 2007 autonomy plan. The involvement of international actors, including the UN and donor states, will be crucial in facilitating a peaceful resolution and ensuring the rights of the Sahrawi people are protected. The outcome of these negotiations will determine the future political and economic landscape of Western Sahara.
