What's Happening?
A peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by President Trump, has been signed in Washington, marking a significant step towards resolving a 35-year conflict. The agreement includes a strategic corridor linking Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan, which will be operated by a US consortium under Armenian sovereignty on a 99-year lease. This development has raised concerns in Iran, which fears being sidelined in regional geopolitics, and in Russia, whose influence in the region is waning. The corridor, running along the border between Armenia and northern Iran, has been a major obstacle to peace. The deal also signifies Armenia's shift towards the West, potentially integrating it into the Middle Corridor project, a trade route between Europe and China.
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Why It's Important?
The agreement represents a geopolitical shift in the South Caucasus, potentially reducing Russian and Iranian influence while increasing US presence. For Armenia, the deal could bring economic benefits by integrating it into broader trade networks. Azerbaijan stands to gain from improved connectivity and potential military cooperation with the US. However, the deal could exacerbate tensions with Iran, which fears losing access to the Black Sea and Europe. The US presence in the region may also alter the balance of power, potentially leading to further diplomatic and economic realignments.
What's Next?
Armenia is expected to hold a referendum in 2027 to amend its constitution, addressing territorial claims against Azerbaijan. The success of the peace agreement will depend on the willingness of both countries to adhere to the terms and the ability of the US to maintain its role as a stabilizing force. Potential reactions from Iran and Russia, who may seek to counterbalance US influence, will also be critical in shaping the region's future.
Beyond the Headlines
The deal's naming as the 'Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity' highlights the personal involvement of President Trump, which could have implications for his legacy and US foreign policy. The agreement may also set a precedent for US-led peace initiatives in other conflict zones, potentially reshaping global diplomatic strategies.
