What's Happening?
Japan is experiencing its largest annual population decline on record, with a decrease of over 900,000 people last year, according to government data. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported that the number of Japanese nationals fell by 908,574 in 2024, bringing the total population to 120 million. This decline has been ongoing for 16 consecutive years, driven by factors such as a struggling economy and entrenched gender norms. The number of births recorded last year was at a historic low of 687,689, while deaths reached a record high of nearly 1.6 million. The working-age population, defined as those between 15 to 64 years old, comprised only 59% of the population, significantly below the global average of 65%. The government has been attempting to address this issue through various measures, including childbirth and housing subsidies and encouraging paternity leave, but the population continues to skew older.
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Why It's Important?
The population decline in Japan poses significant challenges to its social infrastructure, particularly its pension and healthcare systems, which are difficult to maintain with a shrinking workforce. The high proportion of elderly individuals, nearly 30% of the population, exacerbates these challenges, as the proportion of younger adults continues to decrease. This demographic shift impacts economic growth and sustainability, as fewer people are available to contribute to the workforce and support the aging population. The situation highlights broader issues faced by other East Asian countries, such as China and South Korea, which are also experiencing population declines. The potential solution of increasing immigration is controversial in Japan, a country that perceives itself as ethnically homogenous, but recent government efforts to attract foreign workers may help mitigate the decline.
What's Next?
Japan's government is exploring options to address the population decline, including welcoming more immigrants through initiatives like a digital nomad visa and plans to upskill foreign workers. The number of foreign residents in Japan increased by more than 10% last year, reaching a record high of 3.6 million people. Government models predict that Japan's population will fall by 30% by 2070, but the pace of decline may slow due to increased international migration. These efforts may help balance the skewed young-old ratio over time, although the population is expected to continue decreasing for several more decades.
Beyond the Headlines
The population decline in Japan raises ethical and cultural questions about the country's identity and societal norms. The high cost of living, stagnant economy, and demanding work culture contribute to fewer people opting to date, marry, or have children. Japan's patriarchal society often expects married women to take on caregiver roles, which can deter family formation. Addressing these cultural and societal issues is crucial for reversing the population decline and ensuring long-term sustainability.
