What's Happening?
Ahmad al-Sharaa, appointed as the head of Syria's transitional government following the fall of Bashar Assad's regime, is experiencing diminishing support from international backers. Initially, al-Sharaa was seen as a consensus figure capable of guiding Syria towards stability, receiving backing from the United States, Britain, France, and regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. However, the transitional government has faced significant challenges, including violence along the Syrian coast and protests in Sweida. An Israeli airstrike on Syria's Ministry of Defense further complicated the situation, raising questions about the government's legitimacy and ability to govern effectively. Al-Sharaa's administration has struggled to assert authority, particularly in regions with strong ties to the former regime, leading to violent clashes and a perceived lack of coherent strategy.
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Why It's Important?
The instability in Syria's transitional phase has broader implications for regional and international politics. The diminishing support for al-Sharaa reflects a geopolitical recalibration, with countries like the United States shifting priorities away from Syria. The unrest in coastal regions and Sweida highlights the challenges of transitioning from an authoritarian regime to a democratic state, emphasizing the need for genuine decentralization and regional agreements. The situation also underscores the fragility of international consensus regarding Syria, as well as the complexities of rebuilding institutions in a post-conflict environment. The transitional government's inability to project authority raises concerns about the future of Syria's sovereignty and the potential for further conflict.
What's Next?
Syria's path forward requires a new national project that transcends the zero-sum logic of winners and losers. This involves recognizing Syria's pluralism and creating a decentralized state model, potentially federal, with broad regional autonomy. Establishing a high-level transitional justice committee overseen by the United Nations is crucial to address the fate of detainees and administer accountability for former regime officials. Rebuilding Syria's military as a professional, national, and inclusive institution is essential, with international oversight. Regionally, peace in Syria necessitates a comprehensive framework involving Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, alongside renewed understanding between Washington and Moscow regarding Syria's future structure.
Beyond the Headlines
The experience of Ahmad al-Sharaa highlights the limitations of relying solely on international support without strong domestic consensus and governing frameworks. The transitional phase in Syria is a test of legitimacy, requiring a shift from supporting individuals to rebuilding institutions. The situation calls for deeper reconciliation between the state and its fractured communities, emphasizing the importance of political transitions that are supported by practical tools addressing social fractures. Without these elements, Syria risks remaining trapped between its authoritarian past and the unfulfilled promises of its revolution.
