By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) -The U.S. central bank, to President Donald Trump's chagrin, will likely leave interest rates unchanged at a policy meeting this week, but that's not to say there won't be a vigorous debate, with one if not two Federal Reserve governors possibly casting a rare dissent in support of lower borrowing costs.
The majority of Fed policymakers, though, remain concerned that Trump's tariffs could undo progress on bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% goal, outweighing for
now worries about the labor market.
The trade deal struck between the U.S. and Japan last week, with tariffs set at 15%, and reported progress for a similar rate in talks with the European Union make it more likely that import duties overall will end up well below the punishing levels Trump announced on his April 2 "Liberation Day."
Even so, U.S. tariffs are at their highest level in 90 years, and the effects are starting to show up in household purchases. A surge in prices of goods like furnishings and apparel helped drive overall consumer inflation to an annualized 3.5% pace in June.
So soon after a bout of 40-year-high inflation, policymakers fear fast-rising prices could "freak out" households, as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sometimes phrases it, triggering a wider inflationary spiral.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell says that is only one of many possible scenarios, he has argued the central bank can wait to learn more before adjusting rates, especially with a 4.1% unemployment rate near or below estimates of full employment.
Other data and the outlook amid Trump's broader economic program, including tax cuts and deregulation, invite differing views on the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
"Considering the clear divergence in the near-term policy outlook between (Fed Governor Christopher) Waller and (Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle) Bowman and the other FOMC participants, we expect both Waller and Bowman to dissent in favor of a 25-bp (basis-point) cut," wrote analysts at Nomura Securities, one of several Wall Street firms predicting the first double dissent from Fed governors since 1993.
Both Waller and Bowman were appointed to the Board of Governors by Trump, who has excoriated Powell for resisting the White House's demand for an immediate rate cut and broached the idea of firing the Fed chief before his term expires next May.
Last week, during a rare but tense visit to the Fed's headquarters in Washington, Trump once again pressed the case for lower rates, though he also said he didn't think it was necessary to fire Powell.
Waller, who has been mentioned as a possible successor to Powell, sees private-sector job growth nearing stall speed and fears companies could turn to layoffs in the absence of easier credit conditions.
Private-sector hiring accounted for just half of the gain of 147,000 U.S. jobs in June, and Waller says other data suggests even that reading overestimates the true increase. Bowman has also expressed worries about labor market deterioration and feels a rate cut may be needed to prevent it.
Both are skeptical tariffs will lead to persistent inflation.
Several others, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, also see recent muted price increases as suggesting tariffs may not push up inflation as much as earlier thought.
RECORD-BREAKING ECONOMY
Ahead of the scheduled release on Wednesday of the Fed's policy statement, the Commerce Department is widely expected to report that economic activity reaccelerated in the second quarter, pushing total output above $30 trillion in non-inflation-adjusted terms for the first time.
That may shore up Trump's bragging rights to what he says is a U.S. economy that would take off like a rocket if only the Fed cut rates.
But central bankers will see it as more ambiguous. The expected increase follows a first-quarter drop in GDP from a historic rush to front-run Trump's tariffs on imports from U.S. trading partners.
"While a sharp reversal in imports will mechanically boost Q2 GDP, tariff-induced cost pressures, persistent policy uncertainty, severely curtailed immigration, and elevated interest rates are collectively dampening employment, business investment and household consumption," wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. "The U.S. economy continues to navigate a complex set of cross-currents, obscuring a clear reading of its underlying momentum."
Consumer spending, accounting for two-thirds of economic output, has been reasonably strong, with retail sales rising more than expected last month.
Though household bank account balances are lower on a year-over-year basis, data from the JPMorganChase Institute last week suggests overall cash reserves are in better shape.
Bank credit extended to consumers and businesses is up from the prior year for the first time in more than two years, Fed data shows.
Similarly, loan volume and demand rose beginning in late May after sluggish or no growth since the year began, a Dallas Fed survey shows, and bankers expect increased economic activity and rising credit demand through the end of this year.
In another sign the economy isn't rolling over, Fed data shows manufacturing output grew last quarter, albeit by a slower 2.1% annualized pace than the first quarter's 3.7% pace. A measure of how fully firms are using their resources edged up to 77.6% in June from 77.5% in May.
Still, business investment may be faltering. Data on Friday showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft unexpectedly dropped 0.7% in June as firms grew more cautious about spending.
Other data points to a weakening economy, bolstering the minority argument for rate cuts soon.
Employment growth has slowed and hiring breadth is narrowing, led by just a few service-providing sectors.
Finding a job after losing one is getting harder. Half of those collecting unemployment benefits remain on the jobless rolls for at least two-and-a-half months.
And the housing and construction sectors are clearly on the back foot, feeling the drag of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovering near 7%.
Overall construction spending has fallen for nine straight months - a streak unseen since the 2007-2009 financial crisis - and new single-family home starts were the lowest in nearly a year in June. Sales of new and existing homes remain anemic.
"Weak housing demand is convincing evidence that rates are still restrictive, with factors like a softening labor market and high uncertainty possibly also weighing on demand," Citi economists wrote.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)
