By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese
(Reuters) -Global trade and fiscal debt concerns are feeding into a flight to safer assets, sharpening gold's edge as a haven from risk, prompting analysts in a Reuters poll to sharply raise their forecasts.
The poll of 40 analysts and traders returned a median forecast of $3,220 per troy ounce of gold for this year, up from $3,065 predicted in a poll three months ago. The 2026 estimate rose to $3,400 from $3,000. [PREC/POLL]
Spot gold prices are up 27% so far this year
after hitting a record $3,500 per ounce in April with the U.S. and China in the midst of a full-blown trade war, triggering regular forays into safe-haven assets.
"The first half of 2025 confirmed what many of us have long believed. Gold is not just a hedge. It is a signal," said David Russell at GoldCore, calling $4,000 a realistic target by end-2026 should worries about the U.S. fiscal situation deepen further.
Uncertainty over looming trade deadlines with key U.S. partners has bolstered safe-haven gold's appeal, while fiscal concerns got inflated by the passage of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," which nonpartisan analysts expect to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt.
Gold has yet to reclaim April's record highs, and "the short-term consolidation is set to continue as the market misses an imminent trigger to restart the rally," said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer. [GOL/]
Most analysts believe that central banks remain the bedrock of gold's rally, driven by the long-term diversification of reserves away from dollar dominance.
China has added to its reserves for eight months consecutively, while an ECB survey showed nearly two-fifths of central banks cite geopolitical risk as a reason to hold gold.
"The multipolar world persists and with it the central banks' desire to be less dependent on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and - in an extreme case - less susceptible to U.S. sanctions," Menke said.
Silver has surged 32% so far this year, outperforming gold and nearing the key $40 mark for the first time in fourteen years.
Analysts lifted their 2025 silver price forecast to $34.52 from $33.10 in the previous poll, aided by worries about U.S. tariff policy, signs of tightness in the spot market and growing investor interest in alternatives to gold.
The average 2026 silver price forecast was raised to $38 per ounce from $34.58.
Much of the recent surge came from inflows into exchange-traded products, and if that momentum slows, silver could become vulnerable despite expectations of another market deficit this year, said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.
(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru and Polina Devitt in London; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
