Broadly speaking, the box office has been on shaky ground over the last handful of years. Ever since the pandemic shut down theaters all across the world for months on end in 2020, the industry has been in a constant state of flux. Streaming has upended all traditional logic, and Hollywood is increasingly trying to hit a smaller moving target. One of the biggest genres that has become a question mark in the modern era is comedy, specifically of the theatrical variety. The question is, can "The Naked
Gun," a new take on the Leslie Nielsen classic, help save comedies at the box office?
As of this writing, director Akiva Schaffer's "The Naked Gun," which is produced by "Family Guy" creator Seth MacFarlane, is looking at a debut between $23 and $32 million when it arrives in theaters next weekend, per Box Office Theory. For what it's worth, even on the low end, that would be more than double the total take of Schaffer's cult favorite "Popstar: Never Stop Stopping," which failed to break $10 million globally in 2016. Still, with "Taken" star Liam Neeson leading an A-list cast, Paramount Pictures has larger ambitions here.
The big question mark for the moment is just how much Paramount spent on the reboot/legacy sequel. If it cost $50 million or less, an over/under $25 million domestic debut would be a fine start, especially if this one has any juice overseas. To illustrate just how much things have changed, the original "Naked Gun" made $78 million in North America alone in 1988. Even with a solid opening, that could be a very tough number for this new entry in the franchise to hit, without even accounting for inflation.
Schaffer's "The Naked Gunn" centers on Frank Drebin Jr. (Neeson), the son of Frank Drebin (Nielsen), who follows in his father's footsteps on the police force. The stacked ensemble also includes Pamela Anderson ("The Last Showgirl"), Paul Walter Hauser ("I, Tonya"), Kevin Durand ("Abigail"), Cody Rhodes ("Arrow"), and Danny Huston ("The Crow").
Read more: The Greatest Character Actors Of All Time, Ranked
Pure Comedy Hasn't Really Worked In The Pandemic Era
What's interesting over the last handful of years is that, in some way, comedy is more important than it's ever been for the biggest theatrical hits. "Barbie" made $1.4 billion and shattered records leaning heavily into comedy. Many of the Marvel Cinematic Universe movies have a strong comedic component, with "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Deadpool & Wolverine" coming to mind. Animated, family-friendly movies that consistently crush it financially tend to lean on humor as a key component.
The problem is that anything billed as a comedy first, rather than something else with a comedy component, has struggled mightily. Rom-coms have managed to find success here and there, with "Anyone But You" becoming the first in the genre to make $200 million or more since "Crazy Rich Asians" ($239 million) in 2018. Other examples over the last few years include Ticket to Paradise" ($168 million) and "The Lost City" ($192 million).
But when we look at projects that are sold as a comedy first? "Strays" ($36 million worldwide), "Joy Ride" ($15 million worldwide), and many others have failed to break through. Even stuff like Billy Eichner's very well-reviewed "Bros" ($15 million worldwide) failed to break through. That's why it was a pleasant surprise when Sony's "One of Them Days" made nearly $52 million earlier this year. But even that was a somewhat qualified hit thanks to a lack of competition and a small $14 million budget. Rest assured, "Naked Gun" cost more than $14 million to make.
It is perhaps telling that "Happy Gilmore 2" is going to Netflix, where Adam Sandler has largely lived for the last decade. What Sandler movies end up going to theaters these days? More serious affairs like "Uncut Gems." His comedies have largely had to rely on streaming to exist. That's not an isolated case.
The Naked Gun Is Facing Some Unfair Pressure
Success in the modern theatrical marketplace is largely about turning movies into events. That's why Universal started selling IMAX tickets to Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" a year early. So the larger question is, can a comedy for comedy's sake become a cinematic event worth leaving the house for in 2025?
In that way, "The Naked Gun" is burdened somewhat unfairly with big expectations. If this doesn't work, it could decrease the likelihood that Paramount and other studios continue to invest heavily in theatrical comedies. Schaffer, MacFarlane, and all involved just wanted to make a good, funny movie meant to be enjoyed in theaters. They didn't intend to take on so much weight. MacFarlane did make "Ted," which made nearly $550 million worldwide in 2012. That's unfathomable now, but if just a little bit of that magic can rub off on this one...
Part of the problem is that the movie is opening against "The Bad Guys 2," an animated, family-friendly heist/comedy. It's also going up against Marvel's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" on its second weekend, with Disney's "Freakier Friday" and director Zach Cregger's "Weapons" opening the following weekend. "Freakier Friday" is the perfect example of the kind of comedy that can work in today's marketplace. Is that going to eat into this movie's audience? Quite possibly.
The relatively good news is that the August slate isn't full of giant blockbusters. If this movie can get critics on its side and earn good word of mouth from moviegoers, it has a shot. The "Naked Gun" franchise doesn't mean much of anything to the younger generation, but if it's funny enough, it could function as something ostensibly original that Gen Z latches onto, while also getting older, nostalgic audiences to turn up as well. That's the hope, anyway. We'll see where the chips fall.
"The Naked Gun" hits theaters on August 1, 2025.
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Read the original article on SlashFilm.
