What's Happening?
CEO confidence in the U.S. has increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, according to the Conference Board's Measure of CEO Confidence. The index rose to 49, up from 34 in the second quarter, indicating a shift from deep pessimism to near neutral sentiment. This improvement is attributed to easing trade fears and ongoing progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. The survey, conducted from July 14-28, also revealed that the percentage of CEOs expecting a recession within the next 12 to 18 months dropped from 83% to 36%. Despite the positive shift, CEOs continue to rank geopolitical instability and cyber threats as top concerns for their industries.
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Why It's Important?
The rise in CEO confidence suggests a potential stabilization in the U.S. economic outlook, which could lead to increased capital spending, employment, and wage growth. As trade tensions ease, businesses may feel more secure in their strategic planning and investment decisions. However, the persistent concerns over geopolitical instability and cyber threats highlight ongoing challenges that could impact business operations and industry dynamics. The shift in sentiment may influence public policy and economic strategies, as leaders seek to address these concerns while fostering growth.
What's Next?
As CEO confidence continues to recover, businesses may begin to implement plans for expansion and investment, potentially driving economic growth. Policymakers and industry leaders will likely focus on mitigating geopolitical risks and enhancing cybersecurity measures to support this positive trend. The evolving trade negotiations between the U.S. and China will remain a critical factor in shaping future economic conditions and business strategies.
